Syllabus: CIS 4930/5930 Causal Inference Fall 2025

Overview: The course begins with the causal explanation of Simpson’s paradox and then introduces structural causal models, one of the most widely used graphical frameworks for causal reasoning. Through this lens, students will explore the three layers of causal inference — association, intervention, and counterfactuals. The course covers the fundamental concepts of causal inference, including how causal relations and graphs are constructed, methods for estimating causal effects, and approaches to counterfactual analysis. By the end of the course, students will have gained both conceptual understanding and practical skills, enabling them to apply causal inference methods to real-world problems in fields such as public health, economics, and the social and behavioral sciences, while also establishing a strong foundation for advanced study and research in causal modeling.

Prerequisites:

This course requires knowledge of basic computer science, math, probability theorey, algorithms and complexity.

Optional Textbook:

We will not be strictly following any single textbook in this course. However, Causal Inference in Statistics: A Primer by Judea Pearl, Madelyn Glymour, Nicholas P. Jewell and Causality: models reasoning and inference by Judea Pearl broadly cover the course material and are recommended resources.

Logistics:

Time: Tuesday and Thursday 1:20PM - 2:35PM

Location: HWC 3504

Instructor: Ang Li (Email: al23bp at fsu dot edu)

The instructor’s office hour is Tuesday 12:00PM-1:00PM at 166 Love Building.

Teaching Assistant: TBD

The TA's office hour: TBD

Course Website: https://www.causalds.org/teaching/causal-inference

Grading Policy:

Grades will be computed based on the following factors:

Homework 16% (20% for CIS 4930)

Challenge Homework Questions 4% (Extra credits for CIS 4930)

Paper Presentation 50%

Midterm 30%

Tentative Topics: 

1. Introduction

2. Structural Causal Models

3. Causal Discovery Algorithms

4. Identification of Causal Effects

5. Confounding and the Backdoor Criterion

6. Partial Identification of Causal Effects

7. Counterfactuals

8. Identificaition of Counterfactuals

9. Partial Identification of Counterfactuals

Homework:

There will be a number of homework assignments throughout the course, typically made available roughly one to two weeks before the due date. The homework primarily focuses on theoretical aspects of the material and is intended to provide preparation for the exams.

Unless otherwise indicated, you may talk to other students about the homework problems but each student must hand in their own answers and write their own code in the programming part. You also must indicate on each homework with whom you collaborated and cite any other sources you use including Internet websites. Students should never see another student’s solution before submitting their own. Students cannot use old solution sets for this class or solution manual to the textbook under any circumstances. Homework assignments will be submitted through Canvas.

You will have a one-time exemption for a one-day late submission that you can apply to any of your assignments. This will be applied automatically at the end of the semester. The second or subsequent late assignments will be marked as 0 at the end of the semester.

Please submit your homework on time. Homework is worth full credit if submitted before the due date. After the due date, it is worth zero credit, except for the one-time exemption of a one-day late submission. No excuses will be allowed unless you provide an official doctor's note before the deadline and receive my approval.

Paper Presentation:

You will be working in a small group of one or two people to select a paper related to structural causal models. The chosen paper must be approved by the instructor before you proceed. Once approved, your task will be to study the paper carefully, prepare a clear and engaging presentation, and deliver it to the class.

Exam:

There will be a midterm. You are not allowed to discuss them with other people. Missing the exam will automatically result in an F grade.

Tentative Midterm: Oct 23rd at HWC 3504

Extra Credit:

There will be extra credit questions on exams and homeworks (CIS 4930 only).

Academic Integrity Policy:

All students are expected to uphold the Academic Honor Code published in The Florida State University Bulletin and the Student Handbook. The Academic Honor System of The Florida State University is based on the premise that each student has the responsibility (1) to uphold the highest standards of academic integrity in the student's own work, (2) to refuse to tolerate violations of academic integrity in the university community, and (3) to foster a high sense of integrity and social responsibility on the part of the university community.

web site for a complete explanation of the Academic Honor Code.
https://fda.fsu.edu/academic-resources/academic-integrity-and-grievances/academic-honor-policy

COURSE POLICIES:

First Day Attendance Policy: Official university policy is that any student not attending the first class meeting will be automatically dropped from the class.